The End of Automobile Dependence
Proposed streetcar for Downtown Brooklyn / Friends of the Brooklyn-Queens Connector
"Cities have been demanding reduced car dependence," said Peter Newman, professor of sustainability at Curtin University and elder statesman of sustainable transportation, at a talk in Washington, D.C. As a result, 2015 saw a 3 percent decline in greenhouse gas emissions globally. And yet Newman's indicators show global wealth rising.
Newman called this decoupling of wealth and fossil fuels, which is the crux of his new book, The End of Automobile Dependence: How Cities are Moving Beyond Car-Based Planning, co-authored with Jeffrey Kenworthy, extraordinary.
"All the economists and transport planning modelers still think that if you get wealthier, you will drive more." According to Newman's data, this is not necessarily true. "We are driving less and still getting wealthier." The book traces the decline of auto-dependence in global cities.
There are four drivers of this momentous change, according to Newman: increased urban density, the transition to the knowledge economy, generational change, and the relative convenience of public transportation.
"Since 1999, cities are becoming denser," Newman said. "The young and the wealthy want to see people face to face. And density of jobs increases productivity."
According to Newman, car use dropped 23 percent from 2001 to 2009 among 16 to 34 year-olds. People in their 40s and 50s are driving less, people in their 20s and 30s less still. But those in their 60s or older are still reluctant to relinquish their steering wheels, according to Newman's data.
With regards to the convenience of public transportation, Newman stated, "time dominates transport." Last decade, as people were limiting car use, public transit use increased by 100 percent, biking 122 percent, and walking, a respectable 37 percent.
Newman's data elicited several audible gasps during the presentation, one of which was heard when he demonstrated how 240 people could commute in either 1 train, 3 buses, or 177 cars. "Traffic is slowing down because of how many cars there are, and rail is getting fast," Newman said. "The demand now is for walking and transit fabric." To further emphasize the decoupling of wealth and car use, Newman showed how the six most walkable cities in the US enjoy a 38 percent higher GDP, on average.
Europe, which never bought into the cult of the car, and Asia, which has only experienced massive economic growth relatively recently, are leading the way on sustainable transportation, Newman said. His book cites 82 Chinese cities and 51 Indian cities that are currently building metro systems (more gasps).
As for how to fund urban rail, Newman suggested identifying areas ripe for redevelopment, involving the private sector in unlocking that value, then examining what transit numbers might be achieved. He shared how his city of Perth in Australia has done just that.
"The walkable city is a delight," Newman said while answering attendees' questions, but he admitted that successful density is still an elusive goal for many cities."The cities that are doing it right are doing it with biophilic urbanism."
Newman offered Singapore, the island city-state of 5.4 million people, as an example. Roughly 10 percent of the city is devoted to public parks. Additionally, all new buildings must integrate natural habitat into their designs, replacing the potential habitat lost by their footprint. "You may not want to go out walking in a hot, dense city," Newman suggested. "But if that city is forest, well…"