Dive Brief:
- The San Francisco Bay Area’s two regional railroads, Caltrain and Bay Area Rapid Transit, face budget gaps beginning in 2027 that could result in drastic service cuts.
- While ridership on both railroads has increased since the pandemic-induced downturns, they have not yet returned to 2019 levels, resulting in fare revenue shortfalls.
- A November 2026 ballot measure would establish a half-cent sales tax in five Bay Area counties and a one-cent sales tax in the city of San Francisco to fund public transit.
Dive Insight:
Bay Area transit ridership has suffered from the highest work-from-home rate in the U.S. and one of the slowest downtown recoveries, according to BART. The railway is running 100 fewer trains per week than before the pandemic. Ridership on Caltrain surged nearly 47% since it electrified its line between San Francisco and San Jose in 2024, but the portion of fare box revenue that covers its operating expenses stands at 23%, compared to 72% in 2019.
Without additional funding, Caltrain anticipates an average annual deficit of approximately $75 million from fiscal year 2027 to FY 2035. BART estimates a FY 2027 deficit of $376 million.
Both railroads have implemented cost-cutting measures, including hiring freezes and improvements in operating efficiency. They are also looking at potential non-operating revenues, such as advertising, opportunities with commercial fiber and telecommunications companies and more transit-oriented development, to help close the gap.
Caltrain’s board of directors has identified potential service cuts if next year’s ballot measure fails to pass. Those include ending weekend service, reducing daily service to one train per hour and closing over a third of its stations.
BART wouldn’t be able to close its projected deficit even with a 90% service cut that would shutter nine stations, lay off 1,050 workers and reduce service to one train per hour.
A poll of 2,800 Bay Area voters commissioned by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission found that 56% of respondents said they would support the ballot initiative. The MTC is the transportation planning, financing and coordinating agency for the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area.
Correction: An earlier version of this story misstated the name of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission.
