A twin problem of how to retain families and increase birthrates threatens cities’ economic development, a new Urban Institute report found.
Metropolitan areas where 100,000 to 200,000 residents live in neighborhoods with a population density of more than 6,000 people per square mile have long relied on young, childless workers to fuel population and economic growth, according to The Case and Means for Family-Friendly Core Cities report. But demographic shifts, declining birthrates and changing work patterns, including more remote work, mean cities need to find ways to retain the families already living there and attract new ones.
“Cities that fail to retain families may face shrinking school systems, weaker tax bases and increasing poverty concentration,” the report states. That’s because high- and middle-income families are more likely than lower-income families to leave cities, creating impoverished, high-crime areas. “By contrast, family retention can stabilize housing demand, sustain workforce pipelines and strengthen local economies.”
In 2024, U.S. birthrates fell to an all-time low of 1.6 births per woman, which translates to about 54 births per 1,000 women of childbearing age. “As a result, natural population increase is projected to become negative in 2038, after which, all population growth will depend on immigration,” the report states.
Federal policies such as national paid family leave and increased immigration could help address the problem, Lydia Lo, a senior research associate at the Urban Institute who wrote the report, told Smart Cities Dive. But there is a lot of uncertainty. “We don’t know what’s going to happen in terms of immigration, and we don’t know what’s going to happen in terms of fertility policies…so, we said, ‘What is something that we can tell local governments who have capacity and agency right now what they can do in order to preserve some of their economic growth potential because of a loss of population growth?’” she said.
Cities typically pursue policies with current residents in mind, but Lo said she hopes the report will encourage cities to think about also catering to people who don’t live there yet.
The report recommends changes localities can make now to bolster their economic futures:
- Implement reforms that make housing units easier and cheaper to build for rent or purchase.
- Build affordable housing near schools. Research shows that rent and home prices increase when education quality rises, Lo said. “So, if you improve the quality of education, you really need to attend to anti-displacement.”
- Make affordable childcare accessible to everyone. Adjust land-use policies to allow for home-based daycares in multifamily buildings or offer childcare vouchers. “In the same way that rent vouchers make it possible for individuals to stay in cities that are increasingly expensive, they could offer vouchers to help childcare centers afford the costs of land and rent in an area,” Lo said.
- Reduce crime. “Core cities that have experienced significant declines in crime rates have also seen large increased retention of high-income and college-educated family populations,” the report states.
- Provide green space and make neighborhoods walkable by adding things like curb cuts to sidewalks that allow for strollers.
The cycle of young, childless workers moving into cities and then leaving for the suburbs to raise families is a historical pattern, Lo said. But if cities can make it easier and more enjoyable for people to stay there with their children, “it doesn’t have to be the future.”
